Viruses, Vaccines, and Variants

            This has been a post that I had been wanting to write for a long time. It is an important one in terms of prayer- as it elaborates on the current phase of the coronavirus pandemic. It will be crucial to continue lifting up the pandemic in prayer as we plan to travel this August and do missions in Europe and Asia. Yet I also waited a good chunk of time before posting this. Some of this wait was because additional scientific data needed to come in to paint a more accurate picture of what is taking place. The developments related to Covid-19 variants are occurring very rapidly, and new information comes in each week. Plus, more research is likely to be completed in the coming months related to the coronavirus. As a result, I plan to keep you all updated and may follow up this post with another one about the pandemic in April. Today, I wanted to inform you all with the status of the pandemic and how you can be lifting up the team in prayer. The post focuses on three key concepts while wrapping up with a number of prayer points to lift up individually as we continue to prepare for overseas mission work in a few months.

            1. The Viruses

            Since January 2020, the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus has made its way across the world since first being detected in Wuhan, China. The United States and Europe have both been hit hard by the virus, and Covid-19 (the disease caused by the virus) has altered life across the world as we know it. In the US, a huge third wave hit during the Thanksgiving / Christmas holiday period. However, the numbers have begun to trend downward. This downward trend is steeper compared to the decline in cases in the late summer / late spring. Please pray that the numbers will continue to decline. This virus will continue to impact how we conduct ministry. If the numbers keep declining, then we can serve people in other countries with less stringent social distancing policies. This is especially important as relationship building is a crucial part of mission work. Meanwhile, the virus has caused numerous travel restrictions to take effect across the world. Because of this, there is a good chance that we may be “rerouted” to a number of different countries during the trip. This can especially be true as some nations ease or increase restrictions at a moment’s notice. Yet there is a huge praise during this time as influenza has had a very limited spread this season. The current flu season is having the lowest case levels on record, and concerns about a “double pandemic” of flu and Covid-19 have been abated.

            2. The Vaccines

            In late December 2020, approvals were granted for two Covid-19 vaccines in America: one from Phizer / BioNTech and the other from Moderna. At the time, it was seen as very welcoming news. During the spring / summer of 2020, many experts predicted that there was little chance of a Covid-19 vaccine being available in 2020 (and much of 2021). Yet by building off of existing research and initiating clinical trials quickly, vaccines with over 90% efficacy were approved and began to be distributed. Furthermore, additional vaccines such as Sputnik V, AstraZeneca / Oxford, Novavax, Johnson & Johnson, and Sinopharm have either been approved or are being approved; and are beginning to circulate in different areas of the world. This is very much a praise, because coronavirus infections (and travel restrictions) are likely to be reduced as a greater amount of vaccine supplies become available in the coming months. In the US, the country is pushing aggressively to have most of the population vaccinated by the end of the summer. Yet the distribution process is one of the largest logistics projects in human history as governments seek to get everyone access to a Covid-19 vaccine. Encouraging data from Israel is showing that the Phizer vaccine being rolled out is reducing Covid-19 by ~92% in real-world conditions. As more of this data comes in, we can see what the reduction in infections is like.

            3. The Variants

            Yet significant concern remains in the midst of the pandemic. A number of notable variants have emerged that contain mutations in the virus’s genetic code. While there was concern about variants in the fall, the news further proliferated in January as the United Kingdom (B.1.1.7) variant began to spread globally. It is now making its way into the United States. Two other variants, one from South Africa (B.1.351) and one from Brazil (P.1), are also continuing to spread. When evaluating variants, there are two important factors to examine. First, will the variants increase the number of infections and deaths? Data supports that all three variants (and the UK variant in particular) increase the transmissibility / contagiousness by around 50%. This makes the virus easier to spread. Furthermore, data is also raising concerns that the UK variant may be more lethal. Because of this, countries are in a race to vaccinate as much people as possible before these variants spread further. The second factor is if the variants will reduce the immune antibody response (thus reducing the effectiveness of current vaccines). Current data shows that the Phizer and Moderna vaccines are effective against the UK variant. However, the South African and Brazil variants have the E484K mutation, which results in a substantial reduction in antibody response (and a reduction of effectiveness by approximately 20% in some vaccines). There are many new variants that are being detected, and most of them are not significant. However, please be praying that effective responses can be mounted against mutated variants (including updated vaccines if needed); and that no additional significant Covid-19 mutations take place. The coming months will be important in determining if existing therapeutics and vaccines are effective against Covid-19 variants that have the E484K mutation.

            Where do we go from here? & Prayer Points

            Back in early March 2020 (in Pre-Covid times), I prayed to the Lord about how to navigate the future, and He answered to “Trust Me”. This is still important today as we prepare for this trip. Yet where do we go from here? As a follower of Christ who seeks to make His name known in the nations overseas, I would like to invite you to pray for this trip, the pandemic, and the missionaries who are preparing to be sent out in the coming months. Here are some prayer points related to the pandemic to lift up individually:

– How the Covid-19 vaccine will reduce travel restrictions in certain countries related to Covid-19 remains to be seen. There are talks about implementing a “vaccine passport” requirement at some borders.

– A huge winter storm in the US, combined with other factors, have slowed vaccine rollout. However, Phizer and Moderna are hoping to each double production in the coming weeks.

– The AstraZeneca Vaccine has had a significant amount of conflicting data emerge about the shot’s effectiveness. Much of the developing world is relying on this shot to stop Covid.

– The Serum Institute of India (SII) is the world’s largest vaccine maker. They recently suffered a tragic fire in one of its facilities. SII stated that the event did not affect vaccine production.

– The US has detected a Covid-19 variant in New York City with the E484K mutation that appears to be spreading. Other virus strains are being sequenced and detected in India.

– Talks are going to take place as to whether or not Canada and Europe’s borders (along with additional countries) can be safely reopened for the summer in the coming months.

– Because of Covid related travel restrictions, our route may get shifted to new areas (especially the first half of it in Europe). We will have further updates about this around the summer.

– Johnson and Johnson’s vaccine is nearing approval in the US (if not already approved). It is also in the process of being shipped to South Africa (where an E484K variant is spreading).

– The WHO is launching the COVAX program to help vaccinate poor countries that do not have the infrastructure or money to distribute vaccines. Distributions are starting to take place.

– Research is continuing to show whether or not vaccination can prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection and transmission (in addition to protecting against severe Covid-19). More data is expected soon.

            We remain optimistic in travelling internationally in August and trust God that He will place us where He wants us to be in these times. We look forward to continuing to live out the Great Commission, and I will keep you updated with further info on this blog!

Philippians 4: 4-7 (NIV)- “Rejoice in the Lord always. I will say it again: Rejoice! Let your gentleness be evident to all. The Lord is near. Do not be anxious about anything, but in every situation, by prayer and petition, with thanksgiving, present your requests to God. And the peace of God, which transcends all understanding, will guard your hearts and your minds in Christ Jesus”.